Spring Statement UK Fleet Budget Guide

The Spring Forecast is set for 3 March 2026. The good news: most EV fleet changes are already legislated. The risk: you haven't modelled them yet.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the Spring Forecast — not a full Budget — on 3 March. No major new tax announcements are expected, but a raft of already-confirmed changes takes effect from April 2026 that will shift your fleet TCO. This guide maps every confirmed change, flags what might still move, and gives you a three-scenario framework to present to your board before the Chancellor stands up.

What's already confirmed for April 2026

These changes are legislated. They are happening regardless of what the Spring Statement says.

Change	Current (2025/26)	From April 2026	Impact
BIK rate (0 g/km CO₂)	3%	4%	~£100–200/yr extra per driver
VED standard rate	£195/yr	£200/yr	£5 increase (RPI adjustment)
Expensive Car Supplement threshold (EVs)	£40,000	£50,000	EVs priced £40k–£50k avoid the £425/yr supplement
Van benefit charge	£3,960	£4,170	Minor increase for van fleets
Car fuel benefit multiplier	£27,800	£29,200	Affects ICE/hybrid company cars
ZEV mandate target — cars	28%	33%	OEMs must sell more EVs or face £15k/unit fines
ZEV mandate target — vans	16%	24%	Steeper jump — watch for van supply pressure

Key takeaway: BIK at 4% still makes electric company cars dramatically cheaper to tax than petrol or diesel equivalents (up to 37% BIK). A £45,000 EV costs a 40% taxpayer just £720/year in BIK — versus £6,660 for an equivalent petrol car.

BIK trajectory: the long view matters more than 2026

Fleet replacement cycles run 3–4 years. That means cars ordered today will still be on your fleet when BIK hits 7–9%. Here's the confirmed trajectory:

Tax year	BIK rate (0 g/km)	Annual BIK tax on £45k EV (40% taxpayer)
2025/26	3%	£540
2026/27	4%	£720
2027/28	5%	£900
2028/29	7%	£1,260
2029/30	9%	£1,620

Even at 9%, EV BIK remains a fraction of typical ICE rates. But fleet managers running salary sacrifice schemes should model the full cycle cost now — drivers signing up in 2026 need to understand their BIK will more than double by the end of a 4-year lease.

Fleet move: update your salary sacrifice illustrations to show the 4-year BIK trajectory, not just this year's rate.

The Electric Car Grant — extended and expanded

The Autumn Budget 2025 extended the Electric Car Grant (ECG) to 31 March 2030 with £1.3 billion in additional funding. The two-tier structure offers:

Up to £3,750 off qualifying EVs priced under £37,000
Covers cars, small vans and wheelchair-accessible vehicles
For fleet operators, this changes the acquisition maths on pool cars and lower-spec fleet vehicles. Combined with 100% first-year capital allowances (also extended), the upfront cost gap with ICE narrows significantly.
Fleet move: review your approved vehicle list — models priced just above £37,000 may have OEM discounts or fleet-specific pricing that brings them under the ECG threshold.

eVED from 2028: the shadow on your 4-year plan

The headline grabber from the Autumn Budget 2025: a new Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED) from April 2028, charging:

3p per mile for BEVs
1.5p per mile for PHEVs
Mileage verified via MOT records
At 10,000 miles per year, that's roughly £300/year per vehicle on top of standard VED. The OBR estimates this could reduce EV sales by ~440,000 over five years.
This doesn't hit until 2028, but if you're signing 4-year leases in 2026, those vehicles will be on your fleet when eVED starts. Factor it into your TCO projections now.
Fleet move: add a line item for eVED in all lease-vs-buy models for vehicles ordered from mid-2026 onwards.

🔗 For full TCO modelling guidance, see Complete Guide to UK EV Fleet TCO in 2025-26

ZEV mandate at 33%: what it means for fleet procurement

The Zero Emission Vehicle mandate requires manufacturers to sell at least 33% zero-emission cars and 24% zero-emission vans in 2026. Non-compliant OEMs face fines of £15,000 per car and £18,000 per van.

What this means for fleets in practice:

Pricing pressure: OEMs will continue discounting EVs to meet targets — use this as leverage in fleet tenders
Van supply tightness: the jump from 16% to 24% is steep; order early if you're transitioning your van fleet
Model availability: expect more mid-range EV models entering the market as manufacturers chase volume
The April 2025 mandate relaxation (full hybrids and PHEVs allowed until 2035, extended borrowing mechanisms) gives OEMs some breathing room, but the core BEV targets remain ambitious.
Fleet move: if you're running a van fleet, place 2026 EV van orders in Q1 — supply constraints are likely from Q3 as OEMs manage their mandate mix.

🔗 See EV Vans & Trucks TCO Guide 2025 for van-specific analysis

Three scenarios to model before 3 March

The Spring Statement is a forecast, not a Budget — but it's when fleet boards ask "what should we expect?". Here are three scenarios to model:

Scenario A — Status quo (most likely)

No new measures. All April 2026 changes proceed as legislated. The Chancellor reaffirms commitment to the ZEV mandate timeline and existing grant funding.

Budget impact: predictable. Use the confirmed figures above.

Scenario B — Accelerated support

The government signals additional support ahead of the 2028 eVED introduction — for example, reduced VAT on public charging (from 20% to 5%) or expanded depot charging grants beyond March 2026.

Budget impact: lower public charging costs (~15% saving on per-kWh rates), improved depot infrastructure ROI. Worth modelling as an upside case.

Scenario C — Fiscal tightening

The Spring Forecast reveals weaker-than-expected tax receipts, prompting the Chancellor to hint at bringing forward eVED or limiting grant eligibility in the Autumn Budget 2026.

Budget impact: accelerated TCO increase for high-mileage fleets. Model a worst case with eVED starting April 2027 and ECG capped at £2,500.

Scenario	BIK 2026/27	VED 2026/27	eVED timing	ECG	Public charging VAT
A — Status quo	4%	£200/yr	April 2028	£3,750 (to 2030)	20%
B — Accelerated support	4%	£200/yr	April 2028	£3,750+	5%
C — Fiscal tightening	4%	£200/yr	April 2027	£2,500	20%

Fleet move: present all three scenarios to your CFO with a single-page TCO comparison using your actual fleet mix. Decision-makers respond to ranges, not single forecasts.

Depot Charging Scheme: deadline approaching

The £30 million Depot Charging Scheme covers up to 75% of installation costs for fleet charging infrastructure — but installations must be completed by 31 March 2026. If you haven't applied yet, the window is effectively closed for new applications, but check whether your installer can still deliver under the deadline.

For those who missed this round, the Autumn Budget allocated £200 million for public and workplace charging through local authorities. Monitor your local council's plans for 2026/27 allocations.

🔗 See UK EV Fleet Grants & Incentives 2025 for the full grants landscape

Pre-Statement fleet budget checklist

Use this before 3 March to ensure your fleet budget is Spring Statement–ready:

[ ] Update BIK models — switch all company car illustrations from 3% to 4% for 2026/27
[ ] Recalculate salary sacrifice offers — show the full 4-year BIK trajectory (4% → 5% → 7% → 9%)
[ ] Add eVED line item — include 3p/mile from April 2028 in all new lease-vs-buy comparisons
[ ] Review ECG eligibility — check which fleet models fall under the £37,000 threshold
[ ] Check VED Expensive Car Supplement — vehicles priced £40k–£50k now avoid the supplement from April 2026
[ ] Audit ZEV mandate leverage — use OEM compliance pressure to negotiate fleet discounts
[ ] Confirm depot charging status — installations under the £30m scheme must complete by 31 March
[ ] Model three scenarios — present status quo, upside and downside to the board
[ ] Review AER reimbursement rates — ensure 8p (home) / 14p (public) split is reflected in your mileage policy

🔗 For AER compliance, see Why Most EV Mileage Policies Fail HMRC Tests

What fleet managers should do this week

Download your current fleet list and flag every vehicle with a lease expiry in 2026–2028
Run the three scenarios above against your actual mileage data and vehicle mix
Brief your CFO — a one-page summary covering BIK trajectory, eVED exposure and ECG opportunities is worth more than a 30-slide deck
Watch 3 March — we'll publish a post-Statement analysis the same week with fleet-specific takeaways

Sources

HM Treasury — Spring Forecast 2026, confirmed for 3 March 2026.
HMRC — Company car BIK rates confirmed to 2029/30; Advisory Electricity Rates (8p home / 14p public) effective September 2025.
Autumn Budget 2025 — eVED at 3p/mile from April 2028; Electric Car Grant extended to March 2030 (£1.3bn); Expensive Car Supplement EV threshold raised to £50,000.
DfT — Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate: 33% cars, 24% vans target for 2026; April 2025 flexibility amendments.
OZEV — Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Grant (depot charging): £30m scheme, installations by 31 March 2026.
GOV.UK — Vehicle Excise Duty rates and bands 2026/27.
OBR — Economic and fiscal outlook, eVED impact assessment.

Spring Statement 2026: How to Prepare Your UK Fleet Budget Before the Chancellor Speaks